The Number Everyone Is Quoting

A new Mercer survey finding is ricocheting through the internet this week: 99% of CEOs expect AI-driven layoffs within two years.

The headline is alarming by design. But the full Mercer Global Talent Trends 2026 report — drawn from nearly 12,000 C-suite executives, HR leaders, investors, and employees worldwide — contains a more nuanced and, in some ways, more worrying picture than the soundbite suggests.

The data was collected September–October 2025 and published by Mercer in February 2026. It is receiving widespread attention this week, and it deserves a careful read.

What “99% Expect Layoffs” Actually Means

The 99% figure is real, and it covers 825 C-suite leaders out of the report’s ~12,000 respondents — a sub-sample size reported consistently across outlets covering the Mercer data, though Mercer’s own newsroom materials state the 99% finding without breaking out that specific number. But the framing matters.

The survey asked executives whether AI would lead to “at least some” headcount reduction. That is a low bar. An executive planning to eliminate two junior analyst roles and an executive planning to eliminate 2,000 positions both count as “yes.” The statistic tells us almost nothing about scale.

What the data does reveal is near-universal executive expectation of workforce reduction — which means the question is no longer whether AI will displace roles, but how many, which ones, and when.

On that second question, the report is more specific: 65% of executives expect 11–30% of their workforce to be redeployed or reskilled due to AI over the next two years. That is not mass termination — it is substantial structural reorganization.

The Worker Wellbeing Collapse

The most striking finding in the report has nothing to do with CEO layoff plans. It is the data on how workers are actually experiencing this moment.

Only 44% of employees reported thriving at work in 2026. That is down from 66% in 2024 — a 22-point collapse in two years. Mercer notes this puts worker wellbeing below the lows recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AI anxiety is the primary driver. Concern about AI-driven job loss rose from 28% to 40% between 2024 and 2026. And employees are not just worried about their jobs — they feel systematically ignored by leadership when it comes to the emotional weight of AI transitions.

62% of employees believe their leaders underestimate the emotional impact of AI implementation. Only 19% of HR leaders say they actively factor these emotional impacts into their digital strategy. That gap — between what workers are experiencing and what HR is responding to — is one of the sharpest misalignments in the report.

The Leadership Confidence Problem

The executive suite is not faring much better in terms of psychological readiness.

Only 51% of C-suite leaders report feeling well-prepared to succeed in the human-machine era, down from 65% in 2024. They are growing less confident, not more.

This creates a compounding problem: leaders who are uncertain themselves are poorly positioned to reassure or guide the workers beneath them. The result is an anxiety loop — employees worried about AI, leaders not knowing how to respond, HR under-resourced to bridge the gap.

The report also surfaces a specific misalignment between the C-suite and HR. The top priority for C-suite leaders is redesigning work to incorporate AI (63% call it their highest-ROI people initiative), while HR’s top priority, by contrast, is enhancing the employee experience to attract and retain talent. These two agendas are not opposed, but they are not the same — and the gap matters when resources are constrained.

What Workers Actually Want

One finding runs against the media narrative of passive, fearful workers: 63% of employees say they would trade a 10% pay increase for opportunities to upskill in AI and digital skills.

Workers are not simply afraid of AI. They want access to the tools and training that would make them competitive in an AI-augmented economy. The problem is access, not attitude. 53% of employees worry they lack the future-ready skills they will need — but many would actively give up pay to address that gap.

This is significant for employers. The demand for AI training is strong and workers are willing to absorb some of its cost. Companies that move quickly on reskilling programs are not just doing right by employees — they are meeting a genuine need that workers themselves are expressing.

77% of investors say they are more likely to invest in companies committed to AI employee education and training. This creates a financial incentive that aligns with the retention and morale case.

What the Data Does Not Say

The Mercer report is frequently cited alongside the argument that an AI jobs apocalypse is imminent. That framing oversimplifies the picture.

The data shows anxiety, structural transition, and misalignment — not a sudden labor market collapse. The most significant number in the report may not be 99% (layoff expectations) but 44% (workers thriving). A workforce where barely half of people report thriving is a productivity and retention problem before it is a mass displacement event.

This distinction matters. The response to an anxiety and misalignment crisis is different from the response to a displacement crisis. The former requires communication, reskilling investment, and HR alignment. The latter requires severance, retraining programs, and social safety nets. Mercer’s data more strongly supports the former diagnosis.

One day before this data began trending, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told a Commonwealth Bank of Australia conference in Sydney (see ChatForest’s full recap) that he was “delighted to be wrong” about the severity of near-term white-collar AI displacement. Altman’s observation and the Mercer data are not contradictory — they describe the same moment from different angles. Worker wellbeing has collapsed. Jobs have not (broadly speaking). Both are true.

Who Mercer Is

Mercer is a business of Marsh (the rebranded former Marsh McLennan), a global risk, people, and management-consulting firm with annual revenue of over $24 billion and more than 90,000 employees. The Global Talent Trends report is now in its 11th year, making it one of the longer-running surveys of workplace trends available. The 2026 edition surveyed approximately 12,000 respondents across C-suite executives, HR professionals, investors, and employees.

Bottom Line

The Mercer Global Talent Trends 2026 report documents something real: AI is reshaping the psychological contract between employers and workers faster than organizations are adapting. Workers feel the pressure before the layoffs materialize. Leaders themselves are growing less confident, not more. HR is not equipped to bridge the gap.

The 99% headline is technically accurate but functionally misleading. The more important numbers are 44% thriving, 40% anxious about job loss, and 63% willing to trade pay for upskilling. Those numbers describe a workforce that is stressed, uncertain, and underserved — not one that is disappearing.

The question for employers is not whether to cut headcount. It is whether to invest in the human side of AI transition before the anxiety gap becomes a performance gap.

Sources: